What will climate breakdown mean for health in the UK?
New UK HSA report looks at health effects of climate change
In December, the UK Health Security Agency (UK HSA) published the Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK report. It is the fourth such report, but the first since 2012. It provides a detailed and important update on the available evidence relating to the health risks of climate breakdown relevant to the UK.
The report includes information on impacts that are already being seen – a reminder that climate change is not only a future threat. It also models changes that could happen in the future, based on evidence and analysis of what it refers to as a ‘plausible worst-case scenario’.
How will climate breakdown affect health?
Perhaps the least surprising example of health-related risks from climate breakdown relate to heat. Periods of very hot weather lead to increased admissions to hospital and deaths. Extreme heat is particularly dangerous for older adults and people with existing health conditions. If no action is taken in terms of adaptation, the modelling finds that heat-related deaths could increase almost sixfold by the 2050s.
Warmer, wetter weather (and sea-level rise) means an increased risk of flooding. We have seen the impact of flooding in England in the last few weeks, with heavy rain falling on already saturated ground meaning flooded homes, roads, railway lines and agricultural land. Flooding can have health impacts in terms of disease spreading, but also has a well-documented impact on the mental health of those affected. Assuming little adaptation work is done, the report finds the percentage of the UK population likely to be impacted by flooding by 2050 is projected to increase by 61%.
Air pollution is an important factor in respiratory health issues and changing temperatures – particularly heatwaves – can make the health impacts of air pollution more intense. Changes in weather patterns will impact the way in which particulates are dispersed (or not). Air quality in the UK is already the subject of much discussion and recent legislation has the potential to make a significant positive impact. Assuming the reduction of pollutants intended by these policies, exposure to key pollutants should decrease by between 25 and 37% by 2050.
A further issue highlighted in the report is the expected increase in ‘vector-borne diseases’. The vectors examined are insects such as mosquitoes and ticks. Warmer temperatures and milder winters would make the UK a better habitat for vectors, and the diseases associated with them would be more likely to be seen in the UK. These include Lyme disease, dengue fever, chikungunya and West Nile virus.
Additionally, other impacts of climate breakdown could have impacts on health – an increase in wildfires, for example, or the impact of long spells of dry weather or flooding on the UK’s food production. Of course, similar issues in other countries will also impact the UK.
The report underlines the issue of health inequalities in the UK. The impact of climate change will not be felt equally across the population. There will be particular issues (e.g. heat) which may be felt more intensely in urban areas and flooding is most likely to affect coastal and low-lying areas. Existing inequalities are also likely to be exacerbated. People who already have health conditions or who have little money or control over their housing are likely to be more affected.
What action should the UK take?
In the introductory chapter to the report, the authors are clear, “Many of the health risks from climate change are preventable. Therefore, it is key that the evidence in this report is used to inform policy and action.”
The report is based on the modelling of various potential scenarios. Whether the best- or worst-case scenario comes to pass will depend on some factors beyond the control of the UK (the international reduction of carbon emissions). But there are also many actions that the UK can take, making changes based on the information already available. For example, choices made in how buildings are adapted to deal with heat or potential flooding will have an impact on health.
In many areas, environmental and public health priorities align. For example, supporting active travel (walking and cycling) reduces carbon emissions and air pollution, while also increasing fitness and cardiovascular health.
Responding to the report, Darrell Gale, Director of Public Health for East Sussex and Chair of the Planning and Health Advisory Group at the Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH), said, “We need to implement a two-pronged approach. On the one hand we must do all we can to achieve net zero – this report clearly shows what will happen if we don’t. We will see more extreme weather events, ‘tropical’ diseases will become commonplace and our ability to grow crops will be compromised. At the same time, we need to implement solutions that mitigate the health impacts of existing climate changes. To do this, we need to think through the health implications of our planning decisions and adapt our approach accordingly – for example, ensuring that there are enough trees in cities to provide shade when it gets hot.”
Reference
UK Health Security Agency Health effects of climate change (HECC) in the UK. December 2023.