The Lancet Countdown in Europe report
The 2024 Lancet Countdown in Europe report was published this week in The Lancet Public Health.
It shows that climate change is already having an impact on the health of people living in Europe. It also shows that without significant action to slow climate change, those health impacts will increase over time.
Those impacts are not and will not be evenly spread and the report's authors reflect on issues of inequality.
The report is based on data relating to 42 indicators. Not everything relevant to climate and health is measured in a way that can be assessed like this, but the indicators cover a wide range of issues. They look across adaptation, mitigation, economics and political engagement, as well as direct health impacts.
Dr Hans Kluge, World Health Organisation (WHO) Regional Director for Europe, spoke at the launch of the report, saying, “The impressive 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown is the latest assessment of a unique mechanism to track climate-health indicators and it is yet another wake-up call. While some progress has been made since 2022, today’s trends are deeply concerning. Several indicators are moving in the wrong direction […] And the pace at which countries are moving towards net zero remains “woefully inadequate”.”
The Lancet Countdown project
Lancet Countdown is a significant climate and health project. For this European-focused report, researchers from disciplines across climate change and public health looked at 42 indicators to make an assessment of the current impacts, responses and opportunities of climate change, mitigation and adaptation.
This is the second indicator report published since the project began in 2021, and it presents an overview of the response to climate change in Europe and the current and potential impacts on health.
At a launch event, speakers presented the key findings of the report and emphasised the importance of viewing the findings both through the lens of equity and justice, and in the political and economic context.
Impacts of climate change on health
One of the important functions of the review of indicators is to show what impacts climate change is already having on health in Europe. There are some stark facts and figures in this category.
Heat-related deaths have risen in Europe (comparing 2003-12 to 2013-22). For example, in summer 2022, there were over 60,000 premature, heat-related deaths. Overall, the mean increase was 17.2 deaths per 100,000 people. However, the increase is not equal across groups and countries. The increase for women was 21.5 compared to 13.8 for men. The highest increase was seen in Spain, at 39.9, compared to an increase of 1.0 in Iceland.
But rising temperatures have other impacts too – such as increasing the risk of heat stress for people working or otherwise physically active outdoors. Some countries have already experienced increases in extreme drought.
The indicators also show that the warming climate is making vector-borne disease and certain pathogens more likely in more areas of Europe and for longer periods each year. For example, higher sea surface temperatures mean more of the coastline of Europe is suitable for Vibrio bacteria. Warmer temperatures also mean vectors such as mosquitoes survive in more areas and increase the risk of diseases such as West Nile Virus.
The authors conclude that, “Climate change is contributing to worsening multidimensional health impacts across Europe” and “the effects are unevenly distributed, with regional differences often reflecting sociodemographic differences and marginalisation.”
Adaptation, mitigation and co-benefits
Adaptation is about planning and preparing for changes as a result of climate change, in order to lessen the negative impacts. Some of the indicators monitor national and city-level adaptation planning.
While there is some progress in this area, this section concludes that health systems in Europe are not sufficiently prepared or adapted to deal with the health impacts of climate change and there is a lack of assessment and planning taking place.
Hand in hand with adaptation is mitigation: reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to minimise the change in climate.
The indicators show that the European region is far from meeting its targets in reducing emissions. Indeed, the report highlights a significant justice issue. European countries report on the emissions related to what they produce, not what they consume. Much of what is consumed is produced elsewhere, essentially “outsourcing” the negative impacts of emissions and pollution involved in production.
There are significant opportunities for local health benefits to mitigation measures. For example, making it easier for people to walk or cycle would support physical activity to improve health as well as reducing emissions from cars. However, car use actually increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report also finds that most countries in Europe need to "radically reduce" meat and dairy consumption and move towards more plant-based diets. Between 2010 and 2020, emissions related to food actually increased in western and northern Europe. Again, switching to healthier, less-processed, plant-based diets could have substantial health co-benefits.
Properly accounting for the health co-benefits (of reduced cardiovascular disease, for example) can make the estimates of what it costs to put climate change mitigation measures in place more accurate.
Economics and politics
The indicators around economics and finance explore the costs of health-related impacts of climate change and mitigation. There will inevitably be costs related to climate change and taking action now to move economies to a low-carbon path will have immediate and longer-term benefits.
In its exploration of economies, the report highlights that 29 of the 53 countries in the European region continue to provide subsidies for fossil fuels. However, investment in clean energy (which would reduce emissions and reduce the health impacts of air pollution) is increasing.
A final section addresses the political context, tracking engagement with climate and health across academia, media and political speeches. It finds an increase in scientific research relating to health and climate in Europe but low levels of engagement in the media and political spheres.
Conclusions
In their conclusions, the authors note that, “climate change is already negatively affecting the health of European populations, and […] in the absence of appropriate climate action, these impacts will continue to increase in the foreseeable future.”
They highlight the impacts monitored by the indicators and the importance of considering inequalities both within Europe's borders and around the world.
"Recognising the impacts of climate change within and beyond Europe and its role in creating the climate crisis, Europe should commit to a fair and healthy environmental transition, which includes taking global responsibility and supporting the most affected communities."
Reference
Van Daalen KR et al. The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action. The Lancet Public Health. May 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0